Notes

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump shouldn’t come as a surprise given his polarising views. Uncertainty can send investors back into safe-haven assets, but the attempt saw US government bond yields rally as markets considered improved odds of his ascendancy. What I did find surprising was Trump’s choice of JD...

‘No Time To Yield’. That’s Blackrock’s theme for 2024. In other words, what are you waiting for? Hui Sien Koay, says Australians are sitting on too much cash and that when rate cuts come, deposit rates will drop dramatically. Now is the time to switch out of cash and...

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2% in the quarter ending 30 June 2024 and just 1% for the 2023-24 year, the lowest since 1991-92, excluding the pandemic. The ABS attributes the weak growth to subdued household demand propped up by 0.3% government spending, the same rate as the previous...

There’s great anticipation for today’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. A higher-than-expected rate will increase the chances of a rate rise, and some commentators think a lower number will increase the chance of a cut. One data point shouldn’t see us lurching between hikes and cuts. It’s crazy. Is...

APRA surprised the market this week when they said they would phase out Capital Notes, otherwise known as hybrids, and Additional Tier 1 capital. It’s a very interesting move and while it’s still technically up for discussion, I think it is more likely it will proceed. Without the buffer of...

The US Fed looks like it’ll cut interest rates this year while at home the RBA still hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a rate hike. Expert commentary varies widely. Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton tells us we should be looking beyond whether the FED will cut but more...

Evidence of a US slowdown has seen global share markets tumble. Is this the start of something more serious or just increased volatility that we’ve been expecting? Global share indices are all down, albeit the S&P 500 finished in positive territory overnight, up 1.04%. At home, the ASX200 is...

The US and Australia are at very different interest rate junctures. A US rate cut looks almost certain, with markets expecting a cut to the Fed target 5.25 – 5.50% rate in September. While at home, there’s still talk of a rate hike to the 4.35% cash rate. That means...

This week, we’ve seen a number of new corporate bonds in the domestic market. As of close of business on Tuesday 13 August 2024: BNP Paribas is taking expressions of interest for a 10NC5 (10-year, non-call 5) subordinated kangaroo with a fixed to floating and/or floating with price guidance...

According to US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the "time has come" for the central bank to reduce the benchmark rate from a 20-year high, noting progress on inflation. The comments that interest rate cuts were on the way were welcomed by the market with government bond yields rallying...